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<p>A quantitative assessment of river streamflow variations due to natural and anthropogenic factors is important for developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and ensuring sustainable management of water resources. In the context of the Chenab basin in the western Himalayas, understanding these variations is particularly critical due to the region’s diverse topography and sensitivity to climate change. In this study, we project future streamflow in the Chenab basin, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Climate projections indicate rising temperatures, with significant increases in Akhnoor, Batote, Reasi, and Tandi, particularly under RCP 8.5. Precipitation trends vary, with Akhnoor and Reasi showing annual declines and Tandi exhibiting consistent reductions. Snow cover analysis reveals a negative correlation with streamflow, delaying runoff. Land use projections show agricultural and urban expansion at the expense of water bodies and forests. Both models perform well, projecting streamflow declines, with VIC estimating reductions of 19,186.31 cusecs (2020–2040) and 32,908.92 cusecs (2040–2060) under RCP 4.5. The sharper decline under RCP 4.5 is due to slower warming delaying snowmelt, while RCP 8.5 accelerates snowmelt, partially offsetting reductions. Findings highlight climate change impacts on water resources and the need for adaptive management strategies.</p>

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Predictive modeling of streamflow in the Chenab basin under anthropogenic and natural forcings

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月12日

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  • Avtar Singh Jasrotia,
  • Deepika Baru,
  • Retinder Kour

摘要

A quantitative assessment of river streamflow variations due to natural and anthropogenic factors is important for developing effective climate change adaptation strategies and ensuring sustainable management of water resources. In the context of the Chenab basin in the western Himalayas, understanding these variations is particularly critical due to the region’s diverse topography and sensitivity to climate change. In this study, we project future streamflow in the Chenab basin, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Climate projections indicate rising temperatures, with significant increases in Akhnoor, Batote, Reasi, and Tandi, particularly under RCP 8.5. Precipitation trends vary, with Akhnoor and Reasi showing annual declines and Tandi exhibiting consistent reductions. Snow cover analysis reveals a negative correlation with streamflow, delaying runoff. Land use projections show agricultural and urban expansion at the expense of water bodies and forests. Both models perform well, projecting streamflow declines, with VIC estimating reductions of 19,186.31 cusecs (2020–2040) and 32,908.92 cusecs (2040–2060) under RCP 4.5. The sharper decline under RCP 4.5 is due to slower warming delaying snowmelt, while RCP 8.5 accelerates snowmelt, partially offsetting reductions. Findings highlight climate change impacts on water resources and the need for adaptive management strategies.