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<p>Lakes and their catchments in dryland regions are increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and intensified drought conditions worldwide. In the Lake Singida catchment, these challenges remain largely unexplored, resulting in significant impacts on both human populations and natural ecosystems. This paper analyzes temporal rainfall and temperature patterns while assessing drought conditions from 1991 to 2020. Our findings reveal an overall increase in rainfall by 415&#xa0;mm, along with rising temperatures by 1.7&#xa0;°C and 0.45&#xa0;°C for minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) indicates that the catchment has experienced below-average rainfall by 60% of the time, with extreme dryness recorded in 2003 and 2005 and extreme wetness in 1997 and 2020. Furthermore, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows a significant rise in drought conditions over longer periods (18–24&#xa0;months), with increasing trends identified through the Kendall test. These results highlight the complex dynamics between climate variability and drought, emphasizing the need for effective adaptation strategies to enhance the conservation and management of lake resources in the catchment.</p>

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Temporal rainfall and temperature variability and drought assessment in the Lake Singida catchment, central Tanzania

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

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  • Juvenary P. Madyanga,
  • Joel K. Nobert,
  • Edmund B. Mabhuye

摘要

Lakes and their catchments in dryland regions are increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and intensified drought conditions worldwide. In the Lake Singida catchment, these challenges remain largely unexplored, resulting in significant impacts on both human populations and natural ecosystems. This paper analyzes temporal rainfall and temperature patterns while assessing drought conditions from 1991 to 2020. Our findings reveal an overall increase in rainfall by 415 mm, along with rising temperatures by 1.7 °C and 0.45 °C for minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) indicates that the catchment has experienced below-average rainfall by 60% of the time, with extreme dryness recorded in 2003 and 2005 and extreme wetness in 1997 and 2020. Furthermore, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows a significant rise in drought conditions over longer periods (18–24 months), with increasing trends identified through the Kendall test. These results highlight the complex dynamics between climate variability and drought, emphasizing the need for effective adaptation strategies to enhance the conservation and management of lake resources in the catchment.