A Probabilistic Approach to Risk-Benefit Assessment of Fish Consumption in Singapore
摘要
Fish consumption is associated with both health benefits and potential health risks from chemical contaminants. Given Singapore’s high fish consumption levels, a risk-benefit assessment was conducted to evaluate the net health impact of fish consumption in the population. This study utilised a probabilistic quantitative approach to analyse three alternative fish consumption scenarios derived from local consumption patterns at 0.5 times, 1.5 times and 2 times of current average daily fish consumption levels. The net health effect was quantified using disability-adjusted life years, utilising data from Singapore’s Total Diet Study. Benefits from fish consumption were weighed against the health risks arising from four chemical contaminants in commonly consumed fish in Singapore: inorganic arsenic, cadmium, lead, and methylmercury. Results demonstrated that benefits outweighed toxicological risks, whereby increasing fish consumption to twice the current levels had an annual net gain of 503 healthy life years/100,000 individuals, translating to an estimated 20,473 healthy life years gained annually in the Singapore Resident population. However, risks from potential exceedance of chemical contaminant exposure in children and pregnant women due to lead and methylmercury respectively, warrants provision of differentiated evidence-based dietary guidance for vulnerable populations. Based on current consumption patterns and measured levels of the four chemical contaminants in commonly consumed fish in Singapore, these findings support increased fish consumption of commonly consumed fish in the general Singapore Resident population, while providing targeted guidance to vulnerable populations to consume a diverse variety of lower contaminant fish, in order to maximise population health benefits while minimising toxicological risks.