Stromsystem 2030: Fallende Preise, steigende Kosten?
摘要
The gap between stagnating electricity demand and the continued growth of solar and wind power is widening. The simulation of the electricity system for 2030 shows that, with an average of 89.5% renewable electricity in the grid, the share of renewable electricity will exceed 100% for 3,221 hours. The resulting electricity surplus can no longer be offset by electricity exports, requiring more extensive curtailment. A high share of green electricity is associated with sharply falling electricity exchange prices, while low shares of green electricity are expected to lead to rising prices due to the lower utilization of conventional power plants. Overall, the average electricity price on the stock exchange in the simulation falls from 7.9 cents/kWh in 2024 to 4.6 cents/kWh in 2030. At these electricity prices, hydrogen electrolysis can be operated economically, especially in pulsed mode, while the operation of large-scale battery storage systems appears to be hardly economically feasible.