Assessing the Current Demography and Future Shape of a Minority Sub-Population: the Case of Liverpool UK Jewry

The paper sets out how a small religion-based sub-population based in a UK city, Liverpool Jewry, underpinned its planning for the future in the light of its reducing size and the consequent strain on the community’s infrastructure and resources. This was achieved by carrying out a voluntary census to provide information on the community’s current size (about 1800 individuals living in 900 households) and its age profile, household types and other characteristics. The census questions were designed to provide data that allowed future population projections to be developed. The low number of births in the community necessitated the devising of a novel approach to the fertility assessment, though mortality rates were derived in a traditional way. In particular, the various elements of migration were investigated via historical information and stated preference responses. The analysis facilitated the estimation of levels of future demand for educational, youth, cultural, religious, welfare and burial services, and the community’s ability to continue to provide those services. Whilst the subject of this paper is the Jewish community in the city of Liverpool, the approach set out here could be adopted by other minority groups, whether shrinking, growing or stable, in other localities and in other countries.