Unravelling India’s Sugar Trade Competitiveness and Export Restrictions to Global Market: A Gravity and Stochastic Multimarket Analysis
摘要
Despite being the second largest producer of sugar, India has imposed export restrictions. This study examines India’s competitiveness, factors influencing the global sugar trade and the impact of export quotas. The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis indicated that after 2018, India and Thailand became more competitive in the global sugar market. Gravity model findings indicate that landlocked status, exporting countries’ prices, and trading partners’ distances negatively impact trade. Domestic sugar market prices have positive and negative effects on exporters and importers. Multimarket model results revealed that export-quota restrictions increased domestic sugar availability and feedstock for ethanol production. Diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol production makes India a swing supplier in the global sugar trade, which could result in a supply gap in the global sugar market. Trade quotas by India may alter Brazil’s product mix of sugar and ethanol production and other sugar exporters in the near future.