Static hedging of freight rate risk in the shipping market under model uncertainty
摘要
Freight rate derivatives constitute a very popular financial tool in shipping industry, that allows to the market participants and the individuals operating in the field, to reassure their financial positions against the risk occurred by the volatility of the freight rates. Management of freight risk is of major importance to preserve the viability of shipping operations, especially in periods where shocks appear in the world economy, which introduces uncertainty in the freight rate prices. In practice, the reduction of freight risk is almost exclusively performed by constructing hedging portfolios relying on freight rate options. These portfolios needs to be robust to the market uncertainties, i.e. to choose the portfolio which returns will be as less as it gets affected by the market changes. Especially, at time periods where the future states of the market (even in the short term) are extremely ambiguous, i.e. there are a number of different scenarios that can occur, it is of great importance for the firms to make decisions that remain robust to these uncertainties. In this work, a framework for the robust treatment of model ambiguity in (a) modeling the freight rates dynamics employing the notion of Wasserstein barycenter and (b) in choosing the optimal hedging strategy for freight risk management, is proposed. The capabilities of the proposed method are demonstrated through two numerical experiments: (a) a carefully designed synthetic data study in which the robustness of the method is assessed at different levels of heterogeneity of the prior set, set sizes and hedging horizons, and (b) a real data experiment with case studies from two different trade routes in which the hedging performance of the method at time periods that the shipping market was at shock is assessed with satisfactory results.