Koalitionen mit der AfD? Determinanten der Präferenzbildung in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor der Bundestagswahl 2021

The influence of coalition preferences on individual voting behaviour has been a substantial part of political science studies. But still, research on the formation of coalition preferences is in its infancy. However, significant progress has been made in recent years, with a number of studies being presented. Given the well-known differences in political behaviour and attitudes between East and West Germany, it is all the more surprising that this perspective has been neglected in research on the formation of coalition preferences. Especially against the backdrop of substantive and cooperative rapprochement between established parties to the far-right AfD—particularly in East Germany—and rising poll numbers, which indicate increasing popularity for cooperation with the AfD, the present article explicitly addresses the question of which factors contribute to considering a black-blue coalition of CDU/CSU and AfD, as well as a Bahamas coalition of CDU/CSU, AfD, and FDP, desirable in both East and West Germany. Using the GLES pre-election survey for the 2021 Bundestag election, we provide evidence that the determinants leading to support for such alliances substantially differ between East and West Germany. While they commonly include a perceived affinity with AfD positions, and scepticism towards immigration, they diverge in the sense that in East Germany, anti-socialist motives specifically reinforce these preferences, whereas in West Germany, economically liberal positions take precedence. Our results have important implications, as they underscore the imperative consideration of political-cultural differences between East and West Germany—even regarding the question of future government coalitions.