Development and validation of a predictive risk tool for VTE in women with breast cancer under chemotherapy: a cohort study in China

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is significantly elevated in breast cancer patients, with a three-to-fourfold increase, and further escalates to sixfold in those undergoing chemotherapy. This study aims to identify the risk factors for VTE and develop a Nomogram risk prediction model distinct from the traditional Khorana score.

Univariate Cox regression analysis assessed the impact of each variable on the occurrence of VTE, while stepwise multivariate Cox regression analysis identified independent predictors. Based on these results, we constructed a Nomogram model. The model’s performance was validated using the C-index, receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Comparisons were made with the Khorana score to evaluate the practical application value.

Out of the 903 patients, 108 (11.96%) developed VTE. Cox regression analysis identified that Stage, undergoing surgery, age, white blood cells (WBC), D-dimer, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were significant risk factors for VTE (P < 0.05). The Nomogram model’s C-index was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.83) in the training set and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69–0.84) in the validation set. The model demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy and generalizability on the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Compared to the traditional Khorana score, the Nomogram model showed superior predictive accuracy and greater clinical benefit.

This study established a VTE risk prediction model for breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The model is characterized by its intuitive and straightforward application, making it highly suitable for rapid VTE risk assessment in clinical practice.