Development of a nomogram to predict recurrence scores obtained using Oncotype DX in Japanese patients with breast cancer

Chemotherapy is crucial for hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer, and its survival benefits may outweigh adverse events. Oncotype DX (ODX) assesses this balance; however, it is expensive. Using nomograms to identify cases requiring ODX may be economically beneficial. We aimed to identify clinicopathological variables that correlated with the recurrence score (RS) and develop a nomogram that predicted the RS.

We included 457 patients with estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer with metastases in fewer than four axillary lymph nodes who underwent surgery and ODX at our hospital between 2007 and 2023. We developed nomograms and internally validated them in 310 patients who underwent surgery between 2007 and 2021 and validated the model’s performance in 147 patients who underwent surgery between 2022 and 2023.

Logistic regression analysis revealed that progesterone receptor (PgR) level, histological grade (HG), and Ki67 index independently predicted the RS. A nomogram was developed using these variables to predict the RS (area under the curve [AUC], 0.870; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82–0.92). The nomogram was applied to the model validation group (AUC, 0.877; 95% CI, 0.80–0.95). When the sensitivity of the nomogram was 90%, the model was able to identify 52.3% low-RS and 41.2% high-RS cases not requiring ODX.

This was the first nomogram model developed based on data from a cohort of Japanese women. It may help determine the indications for ODX and the use of nomogram to identify cases requiring ODX may be economically beneficial.