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<p>Climate change and urban overheating are intensifying summer thermal risks in naturally ventilated residences in China’s severe cold and cold regions, where tailored overheating criteria remain absent. A multi-city 2024 field campaign (&gt;15,000 records; 15,055 valid pairs) integrated indoor and outdoor monitoring with daily thermal sensation to examine the contextual validity of CIBSE TM59 and to calibrate a regional adaptive assessment. More than half of the monitored living rooms—and virtually all bedrooms—were classified as overheated by TM59, while occupants’ sensations showed about 80% agreement. Fixed bedroom thresholds systematically overestimated overheating at night, particularly just above 26 °C; responses indicate higher acceptability around 26–27 °C and perceptual shifts near 28–30 °C. Building on these findings, a summer residential adaptive model calibrated with the 2024 dataset delivers slightly higher overall classification accuracy and a more balanced sensitivity-specificity profile than GB/T 50785 and a prior preliminary model, while maintaining comparability with international adaptive frameworks. Δl<i>T</i>-based error analyses further suggest a better-calibrated upper-temperature threshold. The results demonstrate the utility of large-scale field evidence for validating and refining overheating assessments and provide a data-driven pathway to localise international guidance. The calibrated thresholds and night-time bedroom references offer actionable inputs for updating Chinese standards and informing retrofit, ventilation, and passive-cooling strategies that enhance climate resilience in cold-climate residences.</p>

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Towards climate-resilient overheating standards for cold-climate residences in China: Insights from large-scale thermal comfort monitoring

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Bolun Zhao,
  • Mengjie Hou,
  • Yitong Xu,
  • Jiahui Yu,
  • Wen-Shao Chang,
  • Yuhan Zhao,
  • Chen Wang,
  • Haibo Guo

摘要

Climate change and urban overheating are intensifying summer thermal risks in naturally ventilated residences in China’s severe cold and cold regions, where tailored overheating criteria remain absent. A multi-city 2024 field campaign (>15,000 records; 15,055 valid pairs) integrated indoor and outdoor monitoring with daily thermal sensation to examine the contextual validity of CIBSE TM59 and to calibrate a regional adaptive assessment. More than half of the monitored living rooms—and virtually all bedrooms—were classified as overheated by TM59, while occupants’ sensations showed about 80% agreement. Fixed bedroom thresholds systematically overestimated overheating at night, particularly just above 26 °C; responses indicate higher acceptability around 26–27 °C and perceptual shifts near 28–30 °C. Building on these findings, a summer residential adaptive model calibrated with the 2024 dataset delivers slightly higher overall classification accuracy and a more balanced sensitivity-specificity profile than GB/T 50785 and a prior preliminary model, while maintaining comparability with international adaptive frameworks. ΔlT-based error analyses further suggest a better-calibrated upper-temperature threshold. The results demonstrate the utility of large-scale field evidence for validating and refining overheating assessments and provide a data-driven pathway to localise international guidance. The calibrated thresholds and night-time bedroom references offer actionable inputs for updating Chinese standards and informing retrofit, ventilation, and passive-cooling strategies that enhance climate resilience in cold-climate residences.