The introduction of a probabilistic behavior model to minimize performance gap and improve affordability of ultra low energy housing
摘要
The occupant behavior is a primary factor contributing to the gap between the designed and actual building energy performance. The current design concepts and methods of ultra-low energy housing (ULEH) in hot summer and cold winter climate zones of China (HSCW) still follow the continuous energy use pattern, rather than the actual “part space, part-time” environmental control behavior adopted by residents in the region. This leads to large discrepancies between the actual and expected performance, coupled with the issue of high incremental costs due to the employment of high technologies, resulting in the slow promotion of ULEH in the region. This research selects Changsha, a typical city in the region, to establish a numerical model of the actual occupant behavior. Based on the model, an improved orthogonal experimental method is employed to examine the impact from energy-saving technologies on building energy and economic performances, so as to identify the key variables. The schemes achieving ULEH are then obtained through parametric analysis. Finally, the technical index system of ultra-low energy housing is reconstructed based on a comprehensive analysis of the schemes. It is found the global cost increment (GCI) of the schemes is 169 yuan/m2 cheaper than that of the reference building, and 202–794 yuan/m2 cheaper compared with the current standard of ULEH. This study contributes to minimize the performance gap and improve the affordability of ultra-low energy housing, so as to promote its replication in the region.