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<p>To examine the influence of the coupled action of multiple risk factors on road traffic accidents involving three or more fatalities (RTATMF), this study analyzed 380 RTATMF cases in China from 2009 to 2023, analyzing drivers, vehicles, roads, and environmental aspects, and subdividing them into 17 secondary risk factors. By leveraging the N-K model, AHP, and entropy weight method, we constructed a coupling degree model for the risk causes of RTATMF and proposed a full-dimensional risk resilience decoupling model. The results show that more coupled causal factors increase transportation system complexity, uncertainty, and accident probability. Notably, single-factor couplings of driver-related risks (0.799) and road–hazard combinations (0.762), and the strongest three-factor interaction among drivers–vehicles–environment (0.1828) significantly impact the system. In the two factors coupling, driver–environment and road–environment have the trend of strong coupling effect. The above results can provide effective countermeasures for preventing RTATMF and provide references for improving road traffic safety in China.</p>

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Research on the Coupling Effects of Risk Factors Based on the N-K Model: A Case Study of  RTATMF in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月3日

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  • Xianke Ma,
  • Jianjun Yang,
  • Peng Chen,
  • Pingfei Li,
  • Zhengping Tan,
  • Wenhao Hu,
  • Liangliang Shi,
  • Mengjun Hao

摘要

To examine the influence of the coupled action of multiple risk factors on road traffic accidents involving three or more fatalities (RTATMF), this study analyzed 380 RTATMF cases in China from 2009 to 2023, analyzing drivers, vehicles, roads, and environmental aspects, and subdividing them into 17 secondary risk factors. By leveraging the N-K model, AHP, and entropy weight method, we constructed a coupling degree model for the risk causes of RTATMF and proposed a full-dimensional risk resilience decoupling model. The results show that more coupled causal factors increase transportation system complexity, uncertainty, and accident probability. Notably, single-factor couplings of driver-related risks (0.799) and road–hazard combinations (0.762), and the strongest three-factor interaction among drivers–vehicles–environment (0.1828) significantly impact the system. In the two factors coupling, driver–environment and road–environment have the trend of strong coupling effect. The above results can provide effective countermeasures for preventing RTATMF and provide references for improving road traffic safety in China.