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<p>Coastal Louisiana provides over $36&#xa0;billion annually in ecosystem services, including storm protection, water filtration, and recreation. However, these services are at risk due to ongoing coastal land loss and sea level rise. This study builds on previous ecosystem services valuations by spatially modeling the acre-by-acre distribution of ecosystem services across Louisiana’s coastal zone and projecting changes under two scenarios from the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan: A future with action and a future of no action. A future with action includes over 100 coastal restoration and protection projects. A future of no action does not. Using reclassified land cover data and high-resolution raster analysis, current and future ecosystem services provisioning are compared under the 2023 model data. Results show that while a future with action reduces ecosystem services losses compared to a future of no action, both scenarios still project billions of dollars in annual ecosystem services provisioning lost across the state due to conversion from land to open water. Key hydrological basins such as Barataria and Terrebonne are predicted to decline most significantly. Even with action, 86–91% of Louisiana’s wetland habitat will experience a reduction in ecosystem services provisioning, and the value of the average acre (hectare) will decline by almost 20% from $6,575 ($2,660) to $5,284 ($2,138); in total, provisioning decreases by $1&#xa0;billion per year in a future of no action compared to a future with action. This spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation demonstrates that coastal Louisiana will experience extensive losses in ecosystem services over the next 50 years, whether the state invests in coastal restoration or not.</p>

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Spatial Trends and Future Predictions of Ecosystem Services in Coastal Louisiana

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月2日

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  • Vanessa van Heerden,
  • Brian Snyder,
  • Cassandra N. Glaspie,
  • Kiki Patsch

摘要

Coastal Louisiana provides over $36 billion annually in ecosystem services, including storm protection, water filtration, and recreation. However, these services are at risk due to ongoing coastal land loss and sea level rise. This study builds on previous ecosystem services valuations by spatially modeling the acre-by-acre distribution of ecosystem services across Louisiana’s coastal zone and projecting changes under two scenarios from the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan: A future with action and a future of no action. A future with action includes over 100 coastal restoration and protection projects. A future of no action does not. Using reclassified land cover data and high-resolution raster analysis, current and future ecosystem services provisioning are compared under the 2023 model data. Results show that while a future with action reduces ecosystem services losses compared to a future of no action, both scenarios still project billions of dollars in annual ecosystem services provisioning lost across the state due to conversion from land to open water. Key hydrological basins such as Barataria and Terrebonne are predicted to decline most significantly. Even with action, 86–91% of Louisiana’s wetland habitat will experience a reduction in ecosystem services provisioning, and the value of the average acre (hectare) will decline by almost 20% from $6,575 ($2,660) to $5,284 ($2,138); in total, provisioning decreases by $1 billion per year in a future of no action compared to a future with action. This spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation demonstrates that coastal Louisiana will experience extensive losses in ecosystem services over the next 50 years, whether the state invests in coastal restoration or not.