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<p>Tracking fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) pollution over time provides critical evidence of ongoing challenges and the impetus for improved management practices or infrastructure improvements. Toward that end, this case study analyzes 27 years (1997-2023) of water quality data from the Lower St. Johns River Basin for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, <i>Escherichia coli</i>, <i>Enterococci</i>, and fecal coliform. Data for each analyte were aggregated by Waterbody ID (WBID) and analyzed with generalized additive models (GAMs) to accommodate uneven sampling, and annual estimates were compared with regulatory limits. In 2023, among WBIDs with sufficient data, the number whose entire 95% confidence interval lay above the threshold was low for nutrients and chlorophyll-a — total nitrogen 1 of 42, total phosphorus 8 of 43, and chlorophyll-a 4 of 40 — but high for fecal indicator bacteria—<i>E. coli</i> 31 of 36 and <i>Enterococci</i> 11 of 13. With <i>E. coli</i> and <i>Enterococci</i> monitored only during 2017–2023, we evaluated the persistence of FIB exceedances over that interval, finding that estimated annual concentrations exceeded regulatory thresholds for <i>E. coli</i> in 230 of 257 WBID–year combinations with sufficient data and for <i>Enterococci</i> in 92 of 106. Fecal indicator bacteria levels were positively correlated with the percent of urban land use area within each respective WBID (0.58 correlation coefficient with <i>E. coli</i> concentration). This work verifies the need for further evaluation of the sources of persistent FIB pollution throughout urbanized lower reaches of the St Johns River watershed and its potential risk to environmental conditions and public health.</p>

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Water Quality Trend Analysis of the St. Johns River in Northeast Florida, 1997-2023

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Ronald Fick,
  • Scott F. Jones,
  • Kalindhi Larios,
  • Rafael Muñoz-Carpena,
  • Miles D. Medina,
  • Christine Angelini

摘要

Tracking fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) pollution over time provides critical evidence of ongoing challenges and the impetus for improved management practices or infrastructure improvements. Toward that end, this case study analyzes 27 years (1997-2023) of water quality data from the Lower St. Johns River Basin for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, Escherichia coli, Enterococci, and fecal coliform. Data for each analyte were aggregated by Waterbody ID (WBID) and analyzed with generalized additive models (GAMs) to accommodate uneven sampling, and annual estimates were compared with regulatory limits. In 2023, among WBIDs with sufficient data, the number whose entire 95% confidence interval lay above the threshold was low for nutrients and chlorophyll-a — total nitrogen 1 of 42, total phosphorus 8 of 43, and chlorophyll-a 4 of 40 — but high for fecal indicator bacteria—E. coli 31 of 36 and Enterococci 11 of 13. With E. coli and Enterococci monitored only during 2017–2023, we evaluated the persistence of FIB exceedances over that interval, finding that estimated annual concentrations exceeded regulatory thresholds for E. coli in 230 of 257 WBID–year combinations with sufficient data and for Enterococci in 92 of 106. Fecal indicator bacteria levels were positively correlated with the percent of urban land use area within each respective WBID (0.58 correlation coefficient with E. coli concentration). This work verifies the need for further evaluation of the sources of persistent FIB pollution throughout urbanized lower reaches of the St Johns River watershed and its potential risk to environmental conditions and public health.