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<p>In permafrost regions, buried warm-oil pipelines act as heat sources, aggravating permafrost degradation and causing thaw-settlement disasters that endanger pipeline safety. Heat insulation and cold preservation are mainly employed to alleviate permafrost degradation, such as insulation layer and two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT). However, there is a lack of research on how to reasonably adopt protective measures to ensure pipeline safety. In this paper, focusing on the China-Russia crude oil pipeline (CRCOP), the failure probability model combining the BP neural network and Monte Carlo method (BP-MC) was set up by the nonlinear thermo-mechanical coupled model. The mechanical behaviors of pipelines and failure probability were analyzed under different protective measures within 50 years. In regions with a thaw-settlement coefficient &lt;27 %, an 8 cm insulation layer alone controls pipeline failure probability below the API critical limit (Plimit=0.1 %). For higher thaw-settlement coefficients, the combined measure (insulation layer + TPCT) is required. Therefore, the TPCT layout should be tailored to geological conditions to ensure operational safety and cost-effectiveness. Axial spacings of TPCT no greater than 8 m, 10 m, and 12 m correspond to maximum thaw-settlement coefficients of 45 %, 38 %, and 31 %, respectively.</p>

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The safety assessment of buried pipeline under thaw-settlement disaster based on the thermo-mechanical coupled model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Honggang He,
  • Zhengcong Du,
  • Jiawei Zhou,
  • Ting Zheng

摘要

In permafrost regions, buried warm-oil pipelines act as heat sources, aggravating permafrost degradation and causing thaw-settlement disasters that endanger pipeline safety. Heat insulation and cold preservation are mainly employed to alleviate permafrost degradation, such as insulation layer and two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT). However, there is a lack of research on how to reasonably adopt protective measures to ensure pipeline safety. In this paper, focusing on the China-Russia crude oil pipeline (CRCOP), the failure probability model combining the BP neural network and Monte Carlo method (BP-MC) was set up by the nonlinear thermo-mechanical coupled model. The mechanical behaviors of pipelines and failure probability were analyzed under different protective measures within 50 years. In regions with a thaw-settlement coefficient <27 %, an 8 cm insulation layer alone controls pipeline failure probability below the API critical limit (Plimit=0.1 %). For higher thaw-settlement coefficients, the combined measure (insulation layer + TPCT) is required. Therefore, the TPCT layout should be tailored to geological conditions to ensure operational safety and cost-effectiveness. Axial spacings of TPCT no greater than 8 m, 10 m, and 12 m correspond to maximum thaw-settlement coefficients of 45 %, 38 %, and 31 %, respectively.