Seasonal Behavior of World Maritime Freight Rate

This study aims to analyze the seasonality of liquefied natural gas (LNG) maritime freight rates and separate the factors into long-term, short-term, and stochastic components. To perform the analysis, we employed correlations and multi-peak fitting methods on the dataset. By comparing various multi-peak fits on the spot rate and time charter rate, we demonstrate that the Gaussian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, combined with a nonlinear curve filter, effectively captures both long-term and short-term peaks in the LNG 160k cubic meter spot rate. Additionally, our findings indicate that the freight market shows a seasonal peak in mid-November, coinciding with a delicate supply-demand balance in the global LNG fleet. Furthermore, we establish a link between this seasonal peak and the world events. We observe that the events significantly impact the magnitude of the winter peak but have less influence on its duration. These results highlight the intricate nature of the LNG freight market and offer valuable insights for fleet investment and capacity operations.