Scholarlink

<p>The Ebola virus continues to present major public health concerns, particularly in African countries including Sierra Leone. Transmission of Ebola virus from deceased and hospitalized people significantly contributed to the disease outbreak in these regions. This study introduces a novel compartmental model designed to understand the dynamical patterns and to explore optimal control intervention for managing the spread of Ebola with transmission from deceased people. The model incorporates vaccinated and hospitalized population groups one of the most effective preventive interventions. Global dynamics of the model is assessed using Lyponov approach to evaluate the stability of the system’s equilibria. The model is validated using the reported daily cases in Sierra Leone during the severe outbreak and the numerical values of the basic reproduction number is estimated. The parameter estimation carried out via the nonlinear standard least squares method. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify critical parameters that influence disease progression and informs the design of effective time-dependent control interventions. Moreover, the model is optimized using Pontryagin Maximum Principle to suggest the optimal intervention for the infection eradication. Simulation shows that applying a combination of the three suggested time-dependent controls significantly reduces the number of infected and exposed cases, while maximizing the number of hospitalized and vaccinated individuals. Among these, continuous treatment of infectious individuals, especially when paired with early vaccination, proves to be the most effective long-term measure. The results highlight the value of prompt and strategic public health actions in curbing Ebola outbreaks.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Nonlinear dynamical modeling and control of Ebola involving transmission from hospitalized and deceased populations: a data-driven approach from Sierra Leone

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月1日

查看全文
  • Qiuni Zhu,
  • Muhammad Asim,
  • Saif Ullah,
  • Sabila,
  • Arshad Alam Khan

摘要

The Ebola virus continues to present major public health concerns, particularly in African countries including Sierra Leone. Transmission of Ebola virus from deceased and hospitalized people significantly contributed to the disease outbreak in these regions. This study introduces a novel compartmental model designed to understand the dynamical patterns and to explore optimal control intervention for managing the spread of Ebola with transmission from deceased people. The model incorporates vaccinated and hospitalized population groups one of the most effective preventive interventions. Global dynamics of the model is assessed using Lyponov approach to evaluate the stability of the system’s equilibria. The model is validated using the reported daily cases in Sierra Leone during the severe outbreak and the numerical values of the basic reproduction number is estimated. The parameter estimation carried out via the nonlinear standard least squares method. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify critical parameters that influence disease progression and informs the design of effective time-dependent control interventions. Moreover, the model is optimized using Pontryagin Maximum Principle to suggest the optimal intervention for the infection eradication. Simulation shows that applying a combination of the three suggested time-dependent controls significantly reduces the number of infected and exposed cases, while maximizing the number of hospitalized and vaccinated individuals. Among these, continuous treatment of infectious individuals, especially when paired with early vaccination, proves to be the most effective long-term measure. The results highlight the value of prompt and strategic public health actions in curbing Ebola outbreaks.