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<p>This study outlines the efforts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of vaccination on the control of Mpox. The primary goal is to investigate the effects of vaccine characteristics on the Mpox burden in Nigeria and the DRC and to estimate the number of cases and deaths averted in each country due to vaccination. To this end, an extended Mpox model incorporating a vaccinated population is presented, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the partial rank correlation coefficient to identify the most significant parameters affecting the control reproduction number, the infected human population, and the deceased human population. The criteria for the global stability of the Mpox-free equilibrium were established using the Lyapunov function, and a numerical simulation was performed to estimate the number of cases and deaths that could be averted through the implementation of vaccination in both countries. We examined the Mpox mortality burden across different age groups in Nigeria and the DRC using Years of Life Lost (YLL) as a metric. The study emphasizes the severity of Mpox in this demographic segment by indicating that older age groups would have a lower fatality rate. Also, the estimate suggested that approximate of 40 years and 43 years can be lost per individual due to Mpox in Nigeria and DRC respectively. Furthermore, the probability of a major outbreak in these regions was estimated, along with the required herd immunity threshold needed to curtail the spread of the disease. The results of this study suggest that vaccination significantly impacts the transmission and mortality rates of Mpox in Nigeria and the DRC, emphasizing that achieving high vaccination coverage is crucial for reaching the herd immunity threshold and preventing outbreaks. These findings underscore the considerable benefits of vaccination in controlling Mpox transmission and reducing the disease burden in Nigeria and the DRC. By implementing robust vaccination programs and proactively addressing associated challenges, we can work toward achieving herd immunity and preventing Mpox outbreaks not only in these countries but also in other regions where the disease remains a threat.</p>

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A mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in controlling Mpox dynamics and mitigating disease burden in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月9日

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  • Olumuyiwa James Peter,
  • Oluwatosin Babasola,
  • Mayowa Micheal Ojo,
  • Andrew Omame

摘要

This study outlines the efforts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of vaccination on the control of Mpox. The primary goal is to investigate the effects of vaccine characteristics on the Mpox burden in Nigeria and the DRC and to estimate the number of cases and deaths averted in each country due to vaccination. To this end, an extended Mpox model incorporating a vaccinated population is presented, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the partial rank correlation coefficient to identify the most significant parameters affecting the control reproduction number, the infected human population, and the deceased human population. The criteria for the global stability of the Mpox-free equilibrium were established using the Lyapunov function, and a numerical simulation was performed to estimate the number of cases and deaths that could be averted through the implementation of vaccination in both countries. We examined the Mpox mortality burden across different age groups in Nigeria and the DRC using Years of Life Lost (YLL) as a metric. The study emphasizes the severity of Mpox in this demographic segment by indicating that older age groups would have a lower fatality rate. Also, the estimate suggested that approximate of 40 years and 43 years can be lost per individual due to Mpox in Nigeria and DRC respectively. Furthermore, the probability of a major outbreak in these regions was estimated, along with the required herd immunity threshold needed to curtail the spread of the disease. The results of this study suggest that vaccination significantly impacts the transmission and mortality rates of Mpox in Nigeria and the DRC, emphasizing that achieving high vaccination coverage is crucial for reaching the herd immunity threshold and preventing outbreaks. These findings underscore the considerable benefits of vaccination in controlling Mpox transmission and reducing the disease burden in Nigeria and the DRC. By implementing robust vaccination programs and proactively addressing associated challenges, we can work toward achieving herd immunity and preventing Mpox outbreaks not only in these countries but also in other regions where the disease remains a threat.