<p>We investigate a generalized stochastic epidemic model with two epidemic and communal infections. In our study, we identify a stochastic threshold, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12190_2025_2447_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="21" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="26" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_{s}^i\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and use it for theoretical analysis to determine the conditions for the disease to become extinct or persist within the population. We demonstrate that when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12190_2025_2447_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="21" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="55" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the disease is eliminated from the population exponentially. In contrast, if <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12190_2025_2447_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="21" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="55" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the disease continues to exist within the population with a probability of one. We also discuss other cases of infection based on the values of <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12190_2025_2447_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="21" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="26" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. To further substantiate our findings, we perform numerical simulations based on our analytical results.</p>

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Stochastic analysis of a generalized epidemic model with two coexisting diseases

  • Amine El Koufi,
  • Mohamed Edraoui

摘要

We investigate a generalized stochastic epidemic model with two epidemic and communal infections. In our study, we identify a stochastic threshold, \(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_{s}^i\) , and use it for theoretical analysis to determine the conditions for the disease to become extinct or persist within the population. We demonstrate that when \(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i < 1\) , the disease is eliminated from the population exponentially. In contrast, if \(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i > 1\) , the disease continues to exist within the population with a probability of one. We also discuss other cases of infection based on the values of \(\boldsymbol{\mathcal{R}}_s^i\) . To further substantiate our findings, we perform numerical simulations based on our analytical results.