<p>Climate change is not just a future concern but it is a present reality. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increase, global temperature rises, triggering a series of environmental changes. One of the less-discussed but significant impact is the spread of food-borne diseases. This article delves into how rising temperature influences food safety. Temperature rise affects the growth and survival of pathogens and warmer temperature can accelerate the replication rate of bacteria and other microorganisms, increasing the likelihood of infection. Furthermore, higher temperature can also affect the life cycles of vectors, enhancing their ability to spread diseases. A non-linear model is presented and examined in this study to investigate the impact of rising global average temperature on the transmission of carrier-dependent infectious diseases within a specific habitat. The model incorporates five dynamic variables: carbon dioxide concentration, global average temperature, susceptible and infected human population, and carrier population density. We assume that the carrier population follows a logistic growth model with temperature-dependent intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity. The analysis demonstrates that as global temperature rise, there is an observed increase in both the density of carriers and the number of infected individuals within population. Reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions may help in controlling the transmission of infectious diseases reliant upon carriers. Numerical simulations, using appropriate parameter values, confirm analytical findings.</p>

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Modeling the effect of temperature rise due to atmospheric carbon dioxide on the outbreak of food-borne diseases

  • Shikha Singh,
  • Shubham Chaudhry,
  • Maninder Singh Arora,
  • Rajeev Kumar Singh,
  • Arvind Kumar Misra

摘要

Climate change is not just a future concern but it is a present reality. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increase, global temperature rises, triggering a series of environmental changes. One of the less-discussed but significant impact is the spread of food-borne diseases. This article delves into how rising temperature influences food safety. Temperature rise affects the growth and survival of pathogens and warmer temperature can accelerate the replication rate of bacteria and other microorganisms, increasing the likelihood of infection. Furthermore, higher temperature can also affect the life cycles of vectors, enhancing their ability to spread diseases. A non-linear model is presented and examined in this study to investigate the impact of rising global average temperature on the transmission of carrier-dependent infectious diseases within a specific habitat. The model incorporates five dynamic variables: carbon dioxide concentration, global average temperature, susceptible and infected human population, and carrier population density. We assume that the carrier population follows a logistic growth model with temperature-dependent intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity. The analysis demonstrates that as global temperature rise, there is an observed increase in both the density of carriers and the number of infected individuals within population. Reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions may help in controlling the transmission of infectious diseases reliant upon carriers. Numerical simulations, using appropriate parameter values, confirm analytical findings.