STAT-LSTM: A multivariate spatiotemporal feature aggregation model for SPEI-based drought prediction
摘要
In recent decades, shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and extreme temperatures have contributed to more frequent droughts. These changes impact not only agricultural production but also food security, ecological systems, and social stability. Advanced techniques such as machine learning and deep learning models outperform traditional models by improving meteorological drought prediction. Specifically, this study proposes a novel model named the multivariate feature aggregation-based temporal convolutional network for meteorological drought spatiotemporal prediction (STAT-LSTM). The method consists of three parts: a feature aggregation module, which aggregates multivariate features to extract initial features; a self-attention-temporal convolutional network (SA-TCN), which extracts time series features and uses the self-attention module’s weighting mechanism to automatically capture global dependencies in the sequential data; and a long short-term memory network (LSTM), which captures long-term dependencies. The performance of the STAT-LSTM model was assessed and compared via performance indicators (i.e., MAE, RMSE, and R