Scholarlink

<p>Zhejiang Province, one of the fastest-growing regions in China in terms of industrialization and urbanization, also faces significant challenges, including environmental degradation and a sharp increase in carbon emissions during its development. This study employed the PLUS model to analyze land use patterns in Zhejiang Province for 2017 and 2022, achieving overall accuracies of 0.903 and 0.902, and Kappa coefficients of 0.809 and 0.810, respectively. The InVEST model then projected carbon storage changes from 2026 to 2034 across four scenarios: Natural Development (ND), Cropland Protection (CP), Urban Development (UD), and Ecological Protection (EP). The main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of carbon storage shows spatial heterogeneity, with a decreasing trend from west to east. From 2001 to 2022, changes in land use have resulted in an increase in forested areas. (2) From 2026 to 2034, carbon storage is projected to decrease by 118,800 tons in the ND scenario, 171,400 tons in the UD scenario, 166,100 tons in the EP scenario, and 200,800 tons in the CP scenario. Despite the increase in vegetation, changes in soil carbon stock, particularly the decomposition rate, may limit the expansion of carbon storage. (3) Trends suggest that carbon storage changes from 2026 to 2034 will follow this order: EP &gt; CP &gt; ND &gt; UD, with stabilization projected by 2030. This study explores the relationships between carbon storage, land cover types, and development patterns, offering recommendations to optimize land use and enhance sustainability.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Multi-scenario carbon storage analysis based on PLUS model and InVEST model: a case study of Zhejiang province, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月18日

查看全文
  • Yirong Wang,
  • Xueqin Jiang,
  • Song Gao,
  • Qi Jiang,
  • Huaqiang Du,
  • Ning Han

摘要

Zhejiang Province, one of the fastest-growing regions in China in terms of industrialization and urbanization, also faces significant challenges, including environmental degradation and a sharp increase in carbon emissions during its development. This study employed the PLUS model to analyze land use patterns in Zhejiang Province for 2017 and 2022, achieving overall accuracies of 0.903 and 0.902, and Kappa coefficients of 0.809 and 0.810, respectively. The InVEST model then projected carbon storage changes from 2026 to 2034 across four scenarios: Natural Development (ND), Cropland Protection (CP), Urban Development (UD), and Ecological Protection (EP). The main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of carbon storage shows spatial heterogeneity, with a decreasing trend from west to east. From 2001 to 2022, changes in land use have resulted in an increase in forested areas. (2) From 2026 to 2034, carbon storage is projected to decrease by 118,800 tons in the ND scenario, 171,400 tons in the UD scenario, 166,100 tons in the EP scenario, and 200,800 tons in the CP scenario. Despite the increase in vegetation, changes in soil carbon stock, particularly the decomposition rate, may limit the expansion of carbon storage. (3) Trends suggest that carbon storage changes from 2026 to 2034 will follow this order: EP > CP > ND > UD, with stabilization projected by 2030. This study explores the relationships between carbon storage, land cover types, and development patterns, offering recommendations to optimize land use and enhance sustainability.