A regional-scale distribution changes and influencing factors of glacial lakes in Xizang autonomous region

As global warming intensifies, the changes of glacial lakes in Xizang need to be carefully examined. Because of their special geographical location and physical characteristics, it is extremely liable to occur Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, which poses a serious threat to the surrounding residents, infrastructure and ecological environment. However, our knowledge about the specific distribution of glacial lakes across the region and their potential risks is still limited. Therefore, by using GIS spatial analysis and the parametric optimal geodetector method, we analyzed the spatio-temporal changes of glacial lakes in Xizang from 1990 to 2015, and the extent to which the annual total precipitation, annual average temperature, annual relative humidity and glacier area change factors affected the changes of glacial lakes. The statistics and analysis show that from 1990 to 2015, the growth rates of glacial lakes in quantity and area were 2.57% and 6.32%, respectively, while the number and area of moraine lakes increased by 18.96% and 28.45%, respectively. Through the analysis of the optimal parameter geographic detector, it is found that the change of glacier area has the greatest influence on the area and number of glacial lakes, with the q value 0.5006 and 0.1696, respectively. In the interaction detection, the interaction between temperature and glacier area change has the strongest explanatory power to the change of glacial lake area. The interaction of the precipitation and the glacier area change has the strongest explanatory power relative to the change of glacier lake number, and the relationship is non-linear. The change of glacial lake is the result of the interaction of various factors. This paper puts forward the quantitative evaluation of various factors and their interactions by using geographic detectors, and reveals the spatio-temporal distribution rule of glacial lakes in Xizang and its influencing factors. On the one hand, it can provide a scientific basis for the early warning and prevention of outbursts of flood from glacial lakes, and help to reduce disaster losses. On the other hand, this study also provides an important reference for the evolution of glacial lakes in the context of global climate change.