Evaluating the impacts of climate change on soil loss using the CMIP6 model and RUSLE in the Muger watershed, Ethiopia

Soil erosion is a type of land deterioration in which the top fertile layer of soil is removed. The aim of this article is to evaluate the effects of climate change on soil erosion in the Muger watershed using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. To evaluate soil loss, RUSLE factors were determined using the digital elevation model, rainfall, and soil and land use land cover (LULC) data. SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 CMIP6 scenarios were used to predict the future rainfall erosivity (R) factor and soil loss. The results of this study showed that, in the baseline period (1989–2018), the mean annual soil loss was 34.36 tons/ha/year. Under SSP2-4.5, the average annual soil loss is projected to be 36.42 tons/ha/year in 2041–2070 and 37.28 tons/ha/year in 2071–2100. Under SSP5-8.5, the mean annual soil loss is projected to be 36.28 and 37.60 tons/ha/year in 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively. The mean annual soil loss increased by 6 to 8.5% under SSP2-4.5 and by 5.59 to 9.43% under SSP5-8.5 compared to the baseline period. Increased rainfall, which enhances rainfall erosivity, accelerates soil erosion rates. The rainfall erosivity factor (R) had a significant impact on the soil loss potential in the study area. The findings are critical for developing mitigation measures in places with high to excessive soil loss. They will help governmental bodies prioritize actions and create successful soil erosion conservation management policies.