Evaluating climate change for the early 21st century in the Potwar Region of Pakistan using CMIP6 simulations

The warming climate is influencing patterns of natural variability. The impact of global climate change is uncertain, and its assessment is challenging. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in its sixth assessment report (AR6) that a threshold of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels will be reached by the mid-21st century, beyond which current systems will not be supported or sufficient. This research aims to investigate the change in future climate in the Potwar region of Pakistan for early century (by 2039). The study employs both in-situ data and outputs from three Global Climate Models (GCMs) – INM-CM5-0, MIROC6, and NorESM2-MM – under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-6 (CMIP6) project to examine the future climate scenario for the study region. The socio-economic pathway SSP2-4.5 scenario is used for future projections along with baseline data from 1980 to 2010. The CMIP6 data is downscaled, to bridge the gap between the coarse-scale outputs of GCMs and the local-scale climate information required for decision-making and planning in the Potwar region, by utilizing delta method for Islamabad, Murree, and Jhelum stations of the region using SD-GCM. Our results show that expected temperature rise for early century is ranging from 0.3 to 1 ⁰C, with an average change of + 0.6 ⁰C in case of maximum average surface temperature (Tasmax), and + 0.7 ⁰C in case of minimum average surface temperature (Tasmin) for Potwar region. The effect on rainfall average is uncertain with more variability and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall events. The ensemble mean value can be estimated as + 0.4 mm in case of rainfall. The investigation helps to study the effects of climate change and provides a basis for impact assessment, as well as the development of adaptative strategies to mitigate unwelcome changes. The research on climate change in the Potwar region of Pakistan is of significant importance due to the potential impacts it can have on various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and human health as the study provides valuable insights into the finer-scale climate change in the Potwar region, which can be used to inform decision-making processes and policy formulation for sustainable development in the area.