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<p>This study examines the settlement intentions of internal migrants in China by distinguishing between two underlying tendencies: <i>de facto</i> (unofficial, residential) and <i>de jure</i> (official, legal) settlement. Based on such classification, using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and latent class analysis, we identify three groups of migrants, representing varying intensities of settlement: (1) those who intend to settle either <i>de facto</i> or <i>de jure</i>; (2) those who are uncertain about settling; and (3) those who do not intend to settle in either form. We link individual-level data from CMDS with city-level indicators and apply multilevel ordinal logistic regression to examine how the economic, cultural, and environmental characteristics of destination cities shape migrants’ settlement intentions. Findings show that higher average housing prices, wages, and educational attainment in destination cities are associated with stronger intentions to settle, while higher levels of air pollution reduce such intentions. The effects of these city-level factors vary by city size. Specifically, housing prices have a more positive effect in smaller cities, while average wages play a greater role in shaping settlement intentions in supercities and megacities. This study highlights the importance of considering both the independent and interactive influences of contextual factors when studying migrants’ settlement intentions.</p>

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Settlers or floaters? Patterns and contextual determinants of internal migrants’ settlement intentions in urban China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月19日

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  • Xiaoman Wu,
  • Zheng Mu

摘要

This study examines the settlement intentions of internal migrants in China by distinguishing between two underlying tendencies: de facto (unofficial, residential) and de jure (official, legal) settlement. Based on such classification, using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and latent class analysis, we identify three groups of migrants, representing varying intensities of settlement: (1) those who intend to settle either de facto or de jure; (2) those who are uncertain about settling; and (3) those who do not intend to settle in either form. We link individual-level data from CMDS with city-level indicators and apply multilevel ordinal logistic regression to examine how the economic, cultural, and environmental characteristics of destination cities shape migrants’ settlement intentions. Findings show that higher average housing prices, wages, and educational attainment in destination cities are associated with stronger intentions to settle, while higher levels of air pollution reduce such intentions. The effects of these city-level factors vary by city size. Specifically, housing prices have a more positive effect in smaller cities, while average wages play a greater role in shaping settlement intentions in supercities and megacities. This study highlights the importance of considering both the independent and interactive influences of contextual factors when studying migrants’ settlement intentions.