<p>Health and safety are critical factors influencing the vitality of international travel. With treated water from the Advanced Liquid Processing System officially discharged into the ocean, a new tourism safety concern has emerged. Given that proximity significantly impacts tourists’ decisions on international travel, this study explored the key factors driving the avoidance of travel to Japan among 605 Chinese tourists in a crisis context. Using an integrated framework of the protection motivation and social learning theories, we found that tourists’ travel avoidance was influenced by a combination of personal emotions, self-protection behaviors, and social learning, with distinct temporal patterns. Specifically, protection motivation played a significant role in short-term avoidance, whereas social norms exerted a strong influence on long-term avoidance. Furthermore, while most structural factors demonstrated positive correlations, social norms exhibited a counterintuitive negative effect. These findings contribute to the evolving understanding of the decision-making factors for international tourists under safety threats and provide theoretical support for expanding effective predictive models. These conclusions offer practical insights for the recovery of international tourism markets affected by safety concerns.</p>