When to cut losses or continue investing: the effects of consecutive near-wins on risky decision-making tendency

The outcomes of our decisions can have significant effects on subsequent decision-making processes. The study used the adapted lottery gambling task to investigate how consecutive near-wins (a specific decision outcome) affect an individual’s propensity to make risky decisions. The study also examined the role of counterfactual emotions in this process. The results showed that (1) As the number of near-wins increased, individuals’ risky decision-making tendency showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend, peaking when the number of consecutive near-wins was three. (2) Counterfactual emotions mediated the relationship between consecutive near-wins and risky decision-making. It suggests that the effect of consecutive near-wins on individuals’ risky decision-making tendency is not simply a superposition of multiple single near-win results, and counterfactual emotions play a critical role in it. Individuals can make informed choices by understanding decision outcomes.