A psychological mechanism of surprise impacts risky decision making

In this paper, we aimed to demonstrate how incidental surprise impacts individuals’ risk-taking behavior. Previous empirical studies have shown that incidental surprise can influence risk-taking behavior, but the psychological mechanisms behind this phenomenon have not been explored. Based on the appraisal tendency framework, we propose that surprise affects individuals’ risk-taking behavior by influencing their level of pleasantness and risk perception. To test our hypothesis, we conducted a study with 79 participants, comparing their pleasantness, risk perception, and risk-taking behavior under different emotions. Our findings strongly indicate that pleasantness and risk perception jointly contributed to a chain mediation effect when positive (negative) surprise prompted participants to become more (less) willing to take risks. Additionally, we also discovered that the effect of negative surprise on risk-taking behavior was moderated by individuals’ risk attitudes. Risk-seeking individuals were less affected by negative surprise than risk-averse ones. Overall, this study sheds light on the psychological mechanisms underlying the impact of incidental surprise on individuals’ risk-taking behavior.