Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Immigrant Labor Supply
摘要
We investigate how short-term movements in exchange rate affect labor-market outcomes of immigrants in the US. Utilizing data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we employ both cross-sectional and longitudinal models with individual fixed effects to analyze immigrants' hours worked and earnings. In cross-sectional analysis, we find that a depreciation of immigrant home country currency against the US dollar is associated with modest declines in immigrants’ hours worked and earnings. Specifically, a 10% depreciation leads to a 0.34% reduction in hours worked and a 0.58% decline in earnings. The effects, however, turn insignificant in longitudinal models with individual fixed effects, which is similar to results from research in other countries and suggest that the difference in prior studies between the US and other countries did not stem from differences in immigrant quality across countries, as alluded in some studies, but from differences in methodologies (cross-sectional versus longitudinal). In additional analysis, we find that Mexican immigrants in border states are more sensitive to exchange rate than those in non-border states; but in longitudinal models, estimates turn insignificant for hours-worked and remain significant for annual earnings suggesting other possible mechanisms, for instance proximity to home country economy, impacting immigrant earnings. Overall, this study highlights that methodological variations primarily explain discrepancies in prior research findings, rather than differences in immigrant characteristics or host country labor market conditions.