The Effects of Strikes on Manufacturing Output
摘要
I examine the effects of strikes on Canadian manufacturing output using monthly data from 1992 to 2023. I estimate a structural vector autoregression, which places identifying restrictions on the parameters, and use the parameter estimates to create impulse response functions and forecast variance decompositions to determine the effects of strikes on manufacturing output for a 12-month horizon after the start of a strike. I also use this methodology to study data from 1976 to 1984 to see how the effects of strikes on manufacturing output have evolved over time and how they compare with estimates from the earlier literature. In both of the periods I consider, I find that strikes have little effect on manufacturing output and these effects are not statistically different from zero. I obtain similar findings when I conduct an analysis by subsector in manufacturing for both periods I consider.