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<p>This study examines the spatial competition dynamics among Mexican Organized Crime (OC) groups from 2000 to 2018. It situates spatial competition within criminological debates on illegal market governance, intergroup rivalry, and systemic violence. Jaccard indices, spatial join-count tests, and generalized additive models (GAMs) with spatial effects are used to investigate the relationship between market potential and the presence of OC groups, as well as homicide rates. The results show that densely populated and well-connected municipalities tend to attract numerous OC groups, resulting in increased violence. The study also shows the relevance of spatial competition theories to criminology by emphasizing strategic decision-making and remarking that violence is influenced by the presence of specific criminal organizations. Implementing policies in places where OC groups are most competitive may help reduce homicidal violence.</p>

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Spatial competition and violence among organized crime groups in Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月9日

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  • Carlos Vilalta,
  • Victor Sanchez-Valdes,
  • Gustavo Fondevila

摘要

This study examines the spatial competition dynamics among Mexican Organized Crime (OC) groups from 2000 to 2018. It situates spatial competition within criminological debates on illegal market governance, intergroup rivalry, and systemic violence. Jaccard indices, spatial join-count tests, and generalized additive models (GAMs) with spatial effects are used to investigate the relationship between market potential and the presence of OC groups, as well as homicide rates. The results show that densely populated and well-connected municipalities tend to attract numerous OC groups, resulting in increased violence. The study also shows the relevance of spatial competition theories to criminology by emphasizing strategic decision-making and remarking that violence is influenced by the presence of specific criminal organizations. Implementing policies in places where OC groups are most competitive may help reduce homicidal violence.