<p>This study investigates how democratic satisfaction, economic evaluation, and crime victimization are associated with emigration intentions in Latin America. Departing from traditional models centered on economic and security push factors, we introduce a “democratic contract” framework that conceptualizes emigration intentions as a form of institutional disengagement linked to perceived failures in political, economic, and security domains. Drawing on 16 waves of Latinobarómetro survey data (2002–2024) across 16 countries, we find that lower democratic satisfaction, negative economic evaluations, and crime victimization are each significantly associated with a greater likelihood of seriously considering emigration. Two unexpected patterns emerge: democratic satisfaction is associated with lower emigration intentions even among crime victims, suggesting that perceived democratic legitimacy may buffer the psychological toll of insecurity; democratic dissatisfaction is most strongly associated with emigration intentions when paired with negative economic assessments, while this association weakens among economic optimists. Despite heterogeneity across countries, a general pattern emerges across institutional settings: multidimensional failures of the democratic contract coincide with higher emigration intentions. This study advances migration research by highlighting democratic performance as a central political dimension of emigration intent and points to the importance of democratic confidence in debates over migration pressures.</p>

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When Democracy Disappoints: Political, Economic, and Security Drivers of Emigration Intentions in Latin America

  • Xiang Wang,
  • Yihui Tong,
  • Jiangrui Liu

摘要

This study investigates how democratic satisfaction, economic evaluation, and crime victimization are associated with emigration intentions in Latin America. Departing from traditional models centered on economic and security push factors, we introduce a “democratic contract” framework that conceptualizes emigration intentions as a form of institutional disengagement linked to perceived failures in political, economic, and security domains. Drawing on 16 waves of Latinobarómetro survey data (2002–2024) across 16 countries, we find that lower democratic satisfaction, negative economic evaluations, and crime victimization are each significantly associated with a greater likelihood of seriously considering emigration. Two unexpected patterns emerge: democratic satisfaction is associated with lower emigration intentions even among crime victims, suggesting that perceived democratic legitimacy may buffer the psychological toll of insecurity; democratic dissatisfaction is most strongly associated with emigration intentions when paired with negative economic assessments, while this association weakens among economic optimists. Despite heterogeneity across countries, a general pattern emerges across institutional settings: multidimensional failures of the democratic contract coincide with higher emigration intentions. This study advances migration research by highlighting democratic performance as a central political dimension of emigration intent and points to the importance of democratic confidence in debates over migration pressures.