Socio-economic Factors of Criminality as Barriers to Sustainable Development: Panel ARDL Estimation from Upper Middle and High-income Nations (2000–2021)
摘要
This study examines the socio-economic factors of criminality as barriers to sustainable development across 44 upper–middle- (UMIN) and 63 high-income nations (HIN). The study employs the panel autoregressive distributed lag model to evaluate both long- and short-run relationships. For UMIN, the results indicate that GDP per capita, gender parity for primary education, and governance quality are negatively associated with crime in the long run, whereas urbanization, income inequality, and inflation exert positive effects. In the short-run results, however, there is a positive association between gender parity for primary education and crime. In HIN, the long-run findings reveal that GDP growth, income inequality, urbanization, and inflation increase crime, while gender parity for primary education and unemployment reduce crime. Short-run analysis shows that GDP growth temporarily lowers crime rates. The COVID-19 shock analysis further shows substantial declines in theft, robbery, assault, burglary, and rape during the first year of the pandemic, whereas homicide and domestic violence exhibit weaker or less consistent patterns. These findings extend the literature by situating socio-economic determinants of crime within a sustainable development framework, offering policy-relevant insights for designing inclusive and long-term strategies to reduce criminality and advance the sustainable development.
Graphical AbstractAbstract graph of socio-economic factors of criminality as a barrier to sustainable development.