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<p>Urban villages are widely presumed to be uniformly criminogenic, yet whether this characterization holds across different spatial contexts remains untested. This study uses geocoded crime data (2019–2021) at the 200&#xa0;m grid level (<i>N</i> = 959 cells) from Futian District, Shenzhen, China, and employs Bayesian spatial panel models and spatially varying coefficient models to test three progressive hypotheses. Results indicate that crime exhibits significant spatial clustering, with nearly 70% of property crime hot spots located in urban village cells despite comprising only 18% of the study area. After controlling for population composition and built environment characteristics, urban village status is associated with 38% higher property crime rates (IRR = 1.38). Most importantly, the urban village-crime relationship varies substantially across space: strong near the CBD (IRR = 1.72), moderate in the middle ring (IRR = 1.36), and virtually absent in peripheral areas (IRR = 1.04). Findings challenge uniform characterizations of urban villages as criminogenic and point to the need for differentiated intervention strategies based on spatial context.</p>

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Not All Urban Villages Are Criminogenic: Spatial Context and the Place-Crime Relationship

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Pengfei Zhang

摘要

Urban villages are widely presumed to be uniformly criminogenic, yet whether this characterization holds across different spatial contexts remains untested. This study uses geocoded crime data (2019–2021) at the 200 m grid level (N = 959 cells) from Futian District, Shenzhen, China, and employs Bayesian spatial panel models and spatially varying coefficient models to test three progressive hypotheses. Results indicate that crime exhibits significant spatial clustering, with nearly 70% of property crime hot spots located in urban village cells despite comprising only 18% of the study area. After controlling for population composition and built environment characteristics, urban village status is associated with 38% higher property crime rates (IRR = 1.38). Most importantly, the urban village-crime relationship varies substantially across space: strong near the CBD (IRR = 1.72), moderate in the middle ring (IRR = 1.36), and virtually absent in peripheral areas (IRR = 1.04). Findings challenge uniform characterizations of urban villages as criminogenic and point to the need for differentiated intervention strategies based on spatial context.