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<p>We ask whether the elimination of cash bail promotes crime. We exploit a Covid-19 related policy in California where a statewide mandate eliminated cash bail. After its relaxation, individual counties were free to continue with the policy. This created variation in the re-implementation of cash bail. We find that the elimination of cash bail leads to a small, but nonzero, increase in violent crime, but we are unable to make a decisive claim regarding its impact on property crime. We further show that it did not affect law enforcement’s clearance rate and, therefore, is likely to be a direct effect from eroding deterrence. Further, we show that the increase in violent crime is concentrated in assaults, rather than more serious felonies which were exempt from the zero cash bail policy.</p>

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The Impact of California’s Zero Dollar Bail Policy On Crime

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月15日

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  • Justin Heflin,
  • Bryan C. McCannon

摘要

We ask whether the elimination of cash bail promotes crime. We exploit a Covid-19 related policy in California where a statewide mandate eliminated cash bail. After its relaxation, individual counties were free to continue with the policy. This created variation in the re-implementation of cash bail. We find that the elimination of cash bail leads to a small, but nonzero, increase in violent crime, but we are unable to make a decisive claim regarding its impact on property crime. We further show that it did not affect law enforcement’s clearance rate and, therefore, is likely to be a direct effect from eroding deterrence. Further, we show that the increase in violent crime is concentrated in assaults, rather than more serious felonies which were exempt from the zero cash bail policy.