Attrition from Jail Reentry Program Increases Recidivism

Reentry programs represent an increasingly popular method to reduce recidivism for individuals exiting prison and jail systems throughout the United States. Most evaluations tend to focus on recidivism as the primary outcome of interest. Attrition, however, can function an important supplementary measure that complements recidivism outcomes. To demonstrate, we analyze a jail reentry program built around peer navigators serving as staff members that refer participants to necessary support services while also serving as a mentor to participants exiting jail. We use a combination of general linear models (GLMs), Mahalanobis distance matching (MDM), and panel regression to both predict attrition and compare recidivism outcomes between three attrition groups: program completers, program quitters, and matched controls. Participants that successfully completed the program did not avoid new convictions or reincarceration significantly more or less than matched controls. Participants that quit the program, however, saw significantly higher conviction and reincarceration rates compared to matched controls. The nuance added to our program evaluation by adding attrition as a differential factor is worth consideration by other reentry programs who may not be realizing the full picture of their results by presenting recidivism outcomes alone.