A Simple Clinical Prediction Model for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Adolescents with Obesity
摘要
To develop and validate a simple, office-based screening tool for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in adolescents with obesity using readily available clinical indicators.
MethodsThis cross-sectional study utilized NHANES 2021–2023 data (derivation cohort, n = 100) and 2017–2020 data (temporal validation cohort, n = 149). MASLD was defined as controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) ≥245 dB/m. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
ResultsA simplified three-variable model incorporating alanine aminotransferase (ALT), triglycerides, and waist circumference demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.809, 95% CI: 0.721–0.897) in derivation and remained robust in validation (AUC 0.725, 95% CI: 0.636–0.814). Inclusion of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) did not significantly improve performance (DeLong P >0.05).
ConclusionsThis validated three-parameter model requires no specialized tests or insulin measurement, providing a practical tool for frontline pediatricians to stratify MASLD risk during routine visits.