A prognostic nomogram for patients with III–IV nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on dynamic changes in the inflammatory and nutrition index

The purpose of the study was to explore the value of dynamic changes in inflammatory and nutritional index after comprehensive treatment in patients with stage III–IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A prognostic model was also established and validated for progression-free survival (PFS) of patients.

We retrospectively selected 279 NPC patients with stage III–IVA. Their general clinical data and hematological index were collected and then calculated the changes during treatment. X-tile software was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. COX regression, Lasso method, and Boruta method were used to variable selection and model establishment. Using the bootstrap internal validation method, concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate the model. To test the prognostic value of the model, we have also evaluated the performance of the nomogram against a conventional tumor metastasis staging system (TNM).

Multivariable COX regression analysis demonstrated that clinical staging, delta lymphocyte, delta monocyte, delta albumin, delta platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and delta systemic immune inflammation index were related to the PFS of NPC patients. The C-index of the model was 0.712, and the calibration curve indicated that the model had good consistency. The C-index of the TNM staging system was 0.597, which was considerably lower compared to our model (P = 0.015).

We demonstrated the predictive value of dynamic changes in inflammatory and nutritional indices for the prognosis of NPC by successfully establishing and validating a prognostic model for predicting 1- and 3-year PFS after comprehensive treatment in patients with stage III–IVA NPC.