Scholarlink

<p>The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) is expanding around the world. MPAs can have a wide variety of objectives (e.g.,&#xa0;science, conservation, food security, cultural value), and scientific guidance on how to design MPAs to achieve objectives is often based on simulation modeling. Many different models may all provide an answer to questions such as the predicted change in population biomass and fisheries catches resulting from th implementation of an MPA. When multiple levels of model complexity are all in theory capable of answering the same question, and the models cannot be confronted with data directly, the decision of what level of model complexity to use can be ad hoc. In this, paper I compare the predicted effects of MPAs on catch and biomass produced by a spatially explicit age-structured multi-species and multi-fleet (<i>High-definition</i>) model to the predictions generated by a two-patch surplus production (<i>Low-definition</i>) model, fitted to emulate the <i>High-definition</i> model. I found that in many cases, the predictions made by the two models were markedly different, with the <i>Low-definition</i> model frequently predicting substantially higher biomass benefits from MPAs than the <i>High-definition</i> model, and in some cases incorrectly estimating the direction (positive or negative) of the MPA effects. However, I also found that the <i>Low-definition</i> model has strategic value for broad classification and ranking exercises. My results show that care should be taken in selecting and interpreting the results of MPA simulation models and that research is needed to understand what models are best suited to what policy recommendations when multiple viable options exist.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Predicted effects of marine protected areas on conservation and catches are sensitive to model structure

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月2日

查看全文
  • Daniel Ovando

摘要

The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) is expanding around the world. MPAs can have a wide variety of objectives (e.g., science, conservation, food security, cultural value), and scientific guidance on how to design MPAs to achieve objectives is often based on simulation modeling. Many different models may all provide an answer to questions such as the predicted change in population biomass and fisheries catches resulting from th implementation of an MPA. When multiple levels of model complexity are all in theory capable of answering the same question, and the models cannot be confronted with data directly, the decision of what level of model complexity to use can be ad hoc. In this, paper I compare the predicted effects of MPAs on catch and biomass produced by a spatially explicit age-structured multi-species and multi-fleet (High-definition) model to the predictions generated by a two-patch surplus production (Low-definition) model, fitted to emulate the High-definition model. I found that in many cases, the predictions made by the two models were markedly different, with the Low-definition model frequently predicting substantially higher biomass benefits from MPAs than the High-definition model, and in some cases incorrectly estimating the direction (positive or negative) of the MPA effects. However, I also found that the Low-definition model has strategic value for broad classification and ranking exercises. My results show that care should be taken in selecting and interpreting the results of MPA simulation models and that research is needed to understand what models are best suited to what policy recommendations when multiple viable options exist.