Did the self-restraint at home policy drive away the storks? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of the self-restraint at home policy on the number of female abortions in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. By using monthly data at the prefectural level from June 2018 to December 2020 and employing a difference-in-difference (DID) estimator, our analysis reveals a significant increase in female abortions due to the self-restraint at home policy. Our findings suggest that the implementation of an emergency declaration in all prefectures in Japan resulted in an approximate five percent increase in the number of female abortions per thousand women aged 15 to 45. It is worth noting that the number of female abortions in prefectures designated as special precautions areas was significantly lower than in other prefectures.