From curse to blessing: a fourier-augmented ARDL analysis of agriculture, geopolitics, and trade in south and central Asia

This study introduces a novel fourier-augmented ARDL approach to explore how agricultural commodity prices and geopolitical risk affect trade integration in South and Central Asia, re-examining conventional views on the resource curse and international trade. Findings shows that in the long-run, these factors contribute to a resource curse in South Asia by hindering trade integration, while in Central Asia, they promote trade integration, indicating a resource blessing. Additionally, short-run commodity price volatility triggers a resource curse in both regions. These insights suggest strategies for policymakers to counteract geopolitical risks and optimize natural resource use, potentially transforming the “curse” into a “blessing” for the economic future of these Asian regions.