p16 Expression as an Independent Prognostic Marker in Oral and Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis
摘要
p16 immunohistochemistry is used as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC/OPSCC). However, conflicting data exist regarding its independent prognostic significance. Systematic searches of PubMed, PubMed Central, and EMBASE (1980–2024) identified 2,847 articles. After screening, 25 studies encompassing 19,703 patients were included. Meta-analysis used random or fixed-effects models based on heterogeneity (I² index). Quality was assessed using PRISMA 2020 and QUADAS-2 criteria. p16-positive patients achieved significantly superior overall survival with pooled hazard ratio (HR) 0.42 (95% CI: 0.27–0.56, p < 0.0001)—a 58% reduction in mortality risk. Five-year overall survival: 85% (p16+) vs. 45% (p16-). Disease-free survival favored p16-positive patients (70% vs. 48%). Most notably, in post-metastatic disease, p16-positive patients achieved 16% 3-year disease-specific survival versus 0% in p16-negative patients (HR 2.5, p < 0.001). Response to radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy significantly favored p16-positive patients (OR 4.07 and 2.87, respectively). Sensitivity analyses across geographic regions, p16 cutoff definitions, and study designs confirmed robust findings (HR range 0.38–0.48, all p < 0.0001). No publication bias detected. This meta-analysis provides strong evidence that p16 positivity is an independent favourable prognostic marker in OSCC/OPSCC with substantial mortality reduction. Combined HPV and p16 testing provides optimal prognostic stratification. Findings support consideration of de-escalation strategies in p16-positive patients within clinical trial frameworks.