Socio-Economic Correlates of the Spatial Pattern of Divorce in China, 2000–2020

Despite extensive micro- and macro-level research on divorce in China, its spatial diffusion remains underexplored. Using the Chinese Census data (2000 to 2020) and spatial Durbin model, this study investigates the spatial dynamics of divorce at prefecture level and examines associated socio-economic factors. Our analysis reveals significant spatiotemporal variation in divorce rates across China. Prefecture-level cities in western and northeastern regions form two major high-divorce clusters, while central and eastern regions display substantial internal heterogeneity. These patterns reflect the interplay of multiple forces, including urbanization, uneven regional development, institutional arrangements, and persistent family traditions, resulting in differentiated regional trajectories of family change. Furthermore, the effects of urbanization on divorce vary over time, reflecting differences in developmental stages and socio-economic conditions. We also find that spatial interactions among neighboring prefectures are crucial for understanding the diffusion of divorce. By identifying endogenous trends (e.g., the Northeast) and exogenous trends (e.g., the central region), this study highlights the temporal and regional heterogeneity of divorce dynamics. Overall, our findings contribute to debates on family modernization in China and enrich the literature on family demography from a spatial diffusion perspective.