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<p>In China’s process of rural shrinkage, the continuous outflow of population has contrasted with the ongoing expansion of rural housing, creating a pronounced spatial mismatch between people and dwellings. Conventional studies that focus only on population decline fail to capture this structural divergence. This study conceptualizes the phenomenon as housing–population decoupling and introduces it as a new perspective for identifying the spatial characteristics of rural shrinkage. Using mobile signaling and housing vector data, we apply a rank–size analytical framework to compare the distribution patterns of population and housing across hierarchical villages. In an ideal state of balance, the two rank–size curves should coincide; however, when population concentrates in county seats and towns while houses remain in place, the curves diverge. Based on this principle, we develop a Housing–Population Decoupling Index (<i>HPDI</i>) to quantify the degree of spatial mismatch between population and housing. Using data from 47 counties in Guangdong Province, the results show that: (1) housing–population decoupling is widespread, with an average HPDI of 0.21, indicating a substantial degree of divergence between the rank–size distributions of population and housing; (2) terrain complexity significantly affects the degree of decoupling, with stronger separation observed in mountainous counties; and (3) decoupling changes over time, expanding in the early stage as public investment concentrates in central settlements, but narrowing later as public services become more evenly distributed between urban and rural areas. These findings suggest that rural shrinkage in China is not a one-way process of decline but a dynamic restructuring shaped by population mobility and spatial reorganization. Housing–population decoupling reflects the embedded resilience of rural transformation: retained housing provides a flexible spatial base that allows rural residents to move and return during urbanization. This study offers a new framework for understanding the stage-specific and resilient dynamics of rural shrinkage. It provides a reference for promoting coordinated urban–rural development at the county level.</p>

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Beyond Population Decline: Housing–Population Decoupling and Rural Shrinkage in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Yaofu Huang,
  • Luan Chen,
  • Zimian Huang,
  • Xun Li,
  • Weipan Xu,
  • Jiangbin Yin

摘要

In China’s process of rural shrinkage, the continuous outflow of population has contrasted with the ongoing expansion of rural housing, creating a pronounced spatial mismatch between people and dwellings. Conventional studies that focus only on population decline fail to capture this structural divergence. This study conceptualizes the phenomenon as housing–population decoupling and introduces it as a new perspective for identifying the spatial characteristics of rural shrinkage. Using mobile signaling and housing vector data, we apply a rank–size analytical framework to compare the distribution patterns of population and housing across hierarchical villages. In an ideal state of balance, the two rank–size curves should coincide; however, when population concentrates in county seats and towns while houses remain in place, the curves diverge. Based on this principle, we develop a Housing–Population Decoupling Index (HPDI) to quantify the degree of spatial mismatch between population and housing. Using data from 47 counties in Guangdong Province, the results show that: (1) housing–population decoupling is widespread, with an average HPDI of 0.21, indicating a substantial degree of divergence between the rank–size distributions of population and housing; (2) terrain complexity significantly affects the degree of decoupling, with stronger separation observed in mountainous counties; and (3) decoupling changes over time, expanding in the early stage as public investment concentrates in central settlements, but narrowing later as public services become more evenly distributed between urban and rural areas. These findings suggest that rural shrinkage in China is not a one-way process of decline but a dynamic restructuring shaped by population mobility and spatial reorganization. Housing–population decoupling reflects the embedded resilience of rural transformation: retained housing provides a flexible spatial base that allows rural residents to move and return during urbanization. This study offers a new framework for understanding the stage-specific and resilient dynamics of rural shrinkage. It provides a reference for promoting coordinated urban–rural development at the county level.