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<p>The traditional industrial development model has led to significant imbalances in urban carbon budgets, with industrial transformation (IT) serving as a key strategy to regulate carbon balance by reducing emissions. However, the spatially variable effects of IT remain underexplored. This study quantifies IT levels and carbon balance ratios (CBR) across 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2003 to 2020, identifying spatial-temporal patterns and correlations. Using the Spatial Durbin Model, we assess the spatially uneven impacts of IT on carbon balance and compare CBR responses in cities with different natural conditions and economic development levels. The results indicate that: (1) From 2003 to 2020, the CBR of the YREB narrowed as carbon deficits increased and rapidly spread outward from the Yangtze River network. Meanwhile, IT levels consistently improved. (2) IT showed significant positive spatial spillover effects, where a 0.1 increase in IT raised local CBR by 0.16 and neighboring areas by 1.12. (3) The positive impact of IT was stronger in regions with favorable natural conditions and lower economic development levels, particularly through spillover effects. This study demonstrates that IT is a key strategy to promote regional carbon balance in the YREB, offering implications for achieving China’s dual carbon targets and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).</p>

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Promoting the Transformation of Industries in Chinese Cities to Accelerate Carbon Neutrality: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Yaobin Liu,
  • Yuewei Chen,
  • Zenghui Zheng,
  • Qiao Zhao,
  • Guoen Wei,
  • Tongning Li

摘要

The traditional industrial development model has led to significant imbalances in urban carbon budgets, with industrial transformation (IT) serving as a key strategy to regulate carbon balance by reducing emissions. However, the spatially variable effects of IT remain underexplored. This study quantifies IT levels and carbon balance ratios (CBR) across 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2003 to 2020, identifying spatial-temporal patterns and correlations. Using the Spatial Durbin Model, we assess the spatially uneven impacts of IT on carbon balance and compare CBR responses in cities with different natural conditions and economic development levels. The results indicate that: (1) From 2003 to 2020, the CBR of the YREB narrowed as carbon deficits increased and rapidly spread outward from the Yangtze River network. Meanwhile, IT levels consistently improved. (2) IT showed significant positive spatial spillover effects, where a 0.1 increase in IT raised local CBR by 0.16 and neighboring areas by 1.12. (3) The positive impact of IT was stronger in regions with favorable natural conditions and lower economic development levels, particularly through spillover effects. This study demonstrates that IT is a key strategy to promote regional carbon balance in the YREB, offering implications for achieving China’s dual carbon targets and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).