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<p>India’s renewable energy transition is evolving through differentiated state-level pathways, raising the question of whether renewable capacity expansion is translating into meaningful fossil displacement and decarbonization. This study assesses transition performance in four major renewable-producing states - Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra - using an entropy-weighted composite index constructed from environmental, social and economic indicators for 2016–2024 and applies grey forecasting to estimate near-term feasibility through 2030. The composite index scores reveal persistent spatial heterogeneity, ranging from 0.59 − 0.33 across the four states, along with Grey Model (1,1) validation, yielding Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 4.84% and R² = 0.98. Rajasthan ranks highest in 2024, Gujarat shows the strongest recent improvement, Karnataka remains consistently strong, and Maharashtra lags comparatively. Forecasts indicate that all four states continue improving through 2030; however, projected trajectories remain insufficient to close the feasibility gap toward India’s 2030 non-fossil target, suggesting that acceleration rather than continuation is required to align subnational pathways with national ambitions. The results also show that displacement-relevant dimensions such as CO₂ emissions, carbon intensity and renewable generation do not advance uniformly with capacity expansion, underscoring that transition outcomes cannot be inferred from installed capacity alone. Together, the composite and forecasting analyses offer complementary insight into how transition progress, fossil displacement and feasibility vary across states. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring subnational transition dynamics, identifying bottlenecks, and supporting differentiated policy strategies in India’s shift toward a non-fossil energy system. More broadly, the study provides an evidence-based approach for evaluating renewable transition trajectories under data constraints and linking transition performance to national clean energy commitments.</p>

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Can India Achieve its 2030 Non-Fossil Capacity Target? Insights from Entropy-Weighted Composite Index and Grey Forecasting of Subnational Renewable Transitions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Pranjal Aarav,
  • Katarzyna Czerewacz-Filipowicz,
  • Sangeeta Sharma

摘要

India’s renewable energy transition is evolving through differentiated state-level pathways, raising the question of whether renewable capacity expansion is translating into meaningful fossil displacement and decarbonization. This study assesses transition performance in four major renewable-producing states - Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra - using an entropy-weighted composite index constructed from environmental, social and economic indicators for 2016–2024 and applies grey forecasting to estimate near-term feasibility through 2030. The composite index scores reveal persistent spatial heterogeneity, ranging from 0.59 − 0.33 across the four states, along with Grey Model (1,1) validation, yielding Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 4.84% and R² = 0.98. Rajasthan ranks highest in 2024, Gujarat shows the strongest recent improvement, Karnataka remains consistently strong, and Maharashtra lags comparatively. Forecasts indicate that all four states continue improving through 2030; however, projected trajectories remain insufficient to close the feasibility gap toward India’s 2030 non-fossil target, suggesting that acceleration rather than continuation is required to align subnational pathways with national ambitions. The results also show that displacement-relevant dimensions such as CO₂ emissions, carbon intensity and renewable generation do not advance uniformly with capacity expansion, underscoring that transition outcomes cannot be inferred from installed capacity alone. Together, the composite and forecasting analyses offer complementary insight into how transition progress, fossil displacement and feasibility vary across states. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring subnational transition dynamics, identifying bottlenecks, and supporting differentiated policy strategies in India’s shift toward a non-fossil energy system. More broadly, the study provides an evidence-based approach for evaluating renewable transition trajectories under data constraints and linking transition performance to national clean energy commitments.