<p>Previous studies have independently investigated the direct effects of economic downturn and internal migration on food insecurity. This study uses a novel integrated approach to analyze both the direct and spatial spillover effects of economic migrants on food insecurity in Pakistan. The economic migration narrative is grounded in the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory, which frames migration as a strategic household choice aimed at diversifying income streams and mitigating vulnerabilities. District-level household data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement 2019–2020 survey were used. We first calculated the Global Moran’s I using the rook contiguity-based spatial weight matrix to assess the presence of spatial autocorrelation in food insecurity. Thereafter, the impacts of economic migration on food insecurity were evaluated using the spatial Durbin model. The results indicate that food insecurity exhibits a significant spatial autocorrelation. The findings from the spatial Durbin model revealed that economic migrants have an insignificant direct effect on food insecurity in their destination districts but show a significant negative association with food insecurity in surrounding areas through spatial spillover effects. This implies that economic migrants do not worsen food security locally but rather improve it in neighboring districts, likely through economic channels such as remittances or by enhancing regional productivity. Therefore, policies should support economic migration with employment opportunities and affordable housing, while also promoting regional economic integration through cross-district infrastructure and formalized remittance channels to leverage these positive spillover effects.</p>

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The Dual Role of Economic Migration in Pakistan: Direct and Spatial Spillover Effects on Food Insecurity

  • Abdullah,
  • Zhanqi Wang

摘要

Previous studies have independently investigated the direct effects of economic downturn and internal migration on food insecurity. This study uses a novel integrated approach to analyze both the direct and spatial spillover effects of economic migrants on food insecurity in Pakistan. The economic migration narrative is grounded in the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory, which frames migration as a strategic household choice aimed at diversifying income streams and mitigating vulnerabilities. District-level household data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement 2019–2020 survey were used. We first calculated the Global Moran’s I using the rook contiguity-based spatial weight matrix to assess the presence of spatial autocorrelation in food insecurity. Thereafter, the impacts of economic migration on food insecurity were evaluated using the spatial Durbin model. The results indicate that food insecurity exhibits a significant spatial autocorrelation. The findings from the spatial Durbin model revealed that economic migrants have an insignificant direct effect on food insecurity in their destination districts but show a significant negative association with food insecurity in surrounding areas through spatial spillover effects. This implies that economic migrants do not worsen food security locally but rather improve it in neighboring districts, likely through economic channels such as remittances or by enhancing regional productivity. Therefore, policies should support economic migration with employment opportunities and affordable housing, while also promoting regional economic integration through cross-district infrastructure and formalized remittance channels to leverage these positive spillover effects.