<p>COVID-19 has significantly impacted the global community, with tourism exacerbating its spread. However, research on tourism’s contribution to epidemic diffusion is scarce. Here, we integrate interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic diffusion model for urban tourist areas based on tourist flow and virus contact transmission rules between individuals. We simulate the spatiotemporal virus spread process in tourists at the city scale. The research reveals that heavily-visited small tourist areas are the primary areas for virus transmission. Even small scenic areas with low visitation rates experienced virus transmission after more than one day of latency. For COVID-19, tourist input viruses are likely to cause transmission in sightseeing areas. However, whether the virus spreads uncontrollably among tourists depends on the city’s reception quantity. Furthermore, spatiotemporal attribute datasets can assist authorities in evaluating infection risks to adopt targeted strategies based on local natural, economic, and social characteristics.</p>

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Spatiotemporal Epidemic Diffusion in Urban Tourist Areas: Modelling Tourist Flow and Virus Spread

  • Luzheng Lu,
  • Junyi Li,
  • Xiping Yang,
  • Yanyan Zhang

摘要

COVID-19 has significantly impacted the global community, with tourism exacerbating its spread. However, research on tourism’s contribution to epidemic diffusion is scarce. Here, we integrate interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic diffusion model for urban tourist areas based on tourist flow and virus contact transmission rules between individuals. We simulate the spatiotemporal virus spread process in tourists at the city scale. The research reveals that heavily-visited small tourist areas are the primary areas for virus transmission. Even small scenic areas with low visitation rates experienced virus transmission after more than one day of latency. For COVID-19, tourist input viruses are likely to cause transmission in sightseeing areas. However, whether the virus spreads uncontrollably among tourists depends on the city’s reception quantity. Furthermore, spatiotemporal attribute datasets can assist authorities in evaluating infection risks to adopt targeted strategies based on local natural, economic, and social characteristics.